Goal:
Build an independent investment thesis for a listed pharma API manufacturer and determine whether the stock was fairly priced, using the same rigor as a sell-side or buy-side pitch.
Tools & Technologies used:
Financial modeling (three-statement model, DCF valuation, WACC via CAPM), ratio analysis, industry research, investor deck design.
What I did?
- Built a 5-year financial model (FY25–FY29) for Neuland Laboratories off historical FY20–FY24 financials
- Ran a DCF valuation using WACC (CAPM method) to estimate intrinsic value per share
- Analyzed industry tailwinds (API/CDMO market growth, government policy support, cost advantages) to stress-test the thesis
- Packaged the analysis into an investor-style pitch deck: company overview, financial performance, investment thesis, risks and mitigation, conclusion: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZTxzqQNTbrg6sDP39PcD5tVHOVRnaMIi/view?usp=share_link
- Shortlisted five additional listed names from the same screening exercise as follow-on ideas: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZTxzqQNTbrg6sDP39PcD5tVHOVRnaMIi/view?usp=share_link
Challenges and learning:
- Reconciling optimistic growth assumptions in company guidance against more conservative historical trends when building the forecast
- Learning how sensitive DCF output is to terminal value assumptions and WACC inputs — small changes moved the valuation meaningfully
- Structuring a pitch that a real investment committee could act on, not just a spreadsheet exercise
Result/Outcome:
- Arrived at an intrinsic value estimate meaningfully above the prevailing market price, suggesting the stock was undervalued
- Built a repeatable pitch deck template usable for future stock screens
- Extended the exercise into a five-stock watchlist across healthcare, textiles, and renewable energy
Keywords
Financial modelling
Investment Research